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Something about the Nonfarm Payroll

2022-06-13

Non-agricultural data is the most attractive to investors, and the impact of this economic data on the market must not be ignored. In general, economists collect and report their forecasts of numbers to the media. If the forecast is consistent with the actual figure, the market refers to this number as “Price in.” When the official is made, it usually does not react too much. However, if the forecast does not match the actual figure, it will likely cause extreme market volatility.

Non-agricultural employment data refers to the monthly survey data released by the US Department of Labour Statistics at 8:30 (Eastern Time) on the first Friday of each month. The report predicts the total number of paid workers in the United States, excluding those in the following industries:

  • Government
  • Private home employees
  • Non-profit organizations
  • Farmers

 

Roughly calculated, “non-agricultural” employees account for about 80% of GDP (gross domestic product) in the United States.

To obtain the above statistics, the US Bureau of Labour Statistics surveyed about 160,000 commercial and government agencies, equivalent to approximately 400,000 individual workplaces, providing detailed industry data on employment, working hours, and employment income among employed people.

Monthly nonfarm payrolls data is considered an indicator of the health of the US economy, as it shows whether US businesses are increasing or cutting jobs.

Non-agricultural employment data has clearly become one of the most market-focused indicators in the history of the United States. As a monthly report on labour force outside the agricultural sector, the results of the will always prompt investors to respond to deployment. If the results are better than expected, it will often make the dollar stronger. However, if the results are unsatisfactory, investors will generally sell dollars or refer to another data indicator announced on the same day, namely the unemployment rate.

The unemployment rate is the number of people who are unemployed but are actively looking for work. This tendency is a politically important figure. In general, if the number is small, it is likely that business is booming and the economy is expanding.

If the non-agricultural employment data is better than expected, the trader will tend to buy dollars. However, if the figures are worse than expected, traders will refer to the unemployment rate to check whether the change in unemployment rate is positive, negative or unchanged. If the unemployment rate rises, it is generally determined that the dollar will weaken. If the unemployment rate falls, the purchase of the US dollar will often follow. If the unemployment rate remains the same, the dollar will weaken slightly because of the insistence of the prostitute.

In recent years, some investors will be waiting for the first Friday of the month, but many investors will close the order on the eve of the data release.

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